Somalia’s Election Debate: Between Reform Ambition and Political Reality

Somalia’s Election Debate: Between Reform Ambition and Political Reality

Somalia is once again approaching a critical political crossroads as debates over the country’s next electoral process intensify. A warning issued by the Somali Future Council highlights growing concerns that delays and disagreements could push the country into a constitutional and security crisis.

Meeting in Garowe, the council’s technical committee stressed that the absence of a clear and agreed electoral framework risks creating a political vacuum—one that could undermine stability and potentially strengthen militant groups.

The Cost of Delay

Somalia’s recent history demonstrates how election delays often translate into broader political standoffs. Each unresolved electoral cycle has left behind weakened institutions and heightened security tensions. Analysts now caution that repeating this pattern could be particularly dangerous given ongoing insurgency threats and economic strain.

The Future Council argues that time is a critical factor, urging swift engagement among political actors before divisions harden further.

A Call for Inclusive Dialogue

At the center of the council’s appeal is a push for national dialogue. Members emphasized that inclusive negotiations remain the most effective way to avoid confrontation and ensure a legitimate transition of power.

The Garowe discussions were framed as a continuation of earlier efforts, particularly those emerging from the Kismayo Conference, which called for consensus-based solutions to Somalia’s electoral challenges.

Government’s Push for Direct Elections

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has remained firm in his vision of moving Somalia toward one-person, one-vote elections. The government maintains that direct elections are essential for democratic credibility and long-term state-building, rejecting any return to indirect systems used in past cycles.

With the president’s term set to expire in less than six months, the administration views electoral reform as a defining legacy issue.

Opposition Concerns and Conditions on the Ground

Opposition leaders do not oppose reform in principle but question its feasibility under current conditions. They argue that nationwide direct elections require security, logistics, and infrastructure that Somalia has yet to fully establish.

Without broad agreement, they warn, pushing forward could deepen political polarization rather than strengthen democracy.

Avoiding Another Cycle of Instability

Despite their differences, opposition figures have expressed willingness to cooperate with the president to deliver a better electoral process than previous ones. However, they insist that meaningful negotiations must begin immediately.

The Future Council’s message is clear: compromise and consultation are not optional. In a country where electoral disputes have repeatedly fueled instability, unity and dialogue remain Somalia’s strongest tools for navigating the months ahead.