Minister of Public Security: Somalia is ready to take over security tasks from African forces.

Somalia's Internal Security Minister, Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail 'Fartaag', announced today that Somali armed forces are prepared to take over security responsibilities as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) completes its withdrawal by the end of the year.

Minister Fartaag assured the public of the national forces' readiness, stating, "If ATMIS leaves, our replacement forces are ready. There is no doubt that our security forces can take over. We are prepared. Our national forces and heroes are ready to collaborate in maintaining the country's security once ATMIS departs."

ATMIS plans to withdraw 4,000 troops within the next month, following previous withdrawals from key regions, including Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakool, and Jubbaland. The minister highlighted that Somali forces have already taken over presidential security responsibilities. ATMIS has previously pledged to ensure a smooth transition of security responsibilities to the Somali Security Forces by December 2024. 

The potential security vacuum that could be exploited by al-Shabaab

Despite this optimism, there are significant concerns about the potential security vacuum that could be exploited by Al-Shabaab, a militant group aiming to overthrow the Somali government. Al-Shabaab, estimated to have between 7,000 and 12,000 fighters, has shown resilience and the ability to recruit new members, including children.

In recent months, Al-Shabaab has increased attacks, targeting security forces and civilians. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) reported a surge in violence, with significant fatalities in regions such as Lower Shabelle and Mudug, highlighting the ongoing threat posed by the group.

International and regional stakeholders' concern over ATMIS withdrawal

International and regional stakeholders have expressed concerns about the ATMIS withdrawal. Leaders from troop-contributing countries, including Uganda and Kenya, have called for a reassessment of the withdrawal timeline, emphasizing the importance of aligning the drawdown with on-the-ground security conditions to prevent a resurgence of militant activity.

The UN independent human rights expert on Somalia, Isha Dyfan, urged Somali authorities to intensify efforts to protect civilians and address human rights violations. Dyfan called for concrete actions against officials who violate citizens' rights and stressed the need to strengthen the capacity to investigate and prosecute cases of sexual and gender-based violence.

The federal government, supported by international partners, continues to build its security forces to manage the nation's complex security challenges. The African Union, in collaboration with the United Nations and other stakeholders, is developing a comprehensive post-ATMIS plan to maintain momentum in Somalia's security efforts and avoid a security vacuum, aiming to support Somalia in achieving long-term stability and peace.